Key Facts:

– Incoming PM Chris Luxon refused to comment on reversing the ban on foreign buyers of high-priced houses, suggesting the policy may be dead.
– Council of Trade Unions economist Craig Renney believes it is “inconceivable” for NZ First leader Winston Peters to allow foreign buyers back in.
– First home buyers now account for a record high of 27% of the property market, with lower property prices offsetting high interest rates and cost of living pressures.
– The Reserve Bank predicts overall house prices to rise 4.84% by next year and 6.22% in two years’ time, driven by high migration and tax benefits for landlords.
– Economist Shane Martin expects National’s housing plan to be similar to Labour’s, with focus on increasing housing supply through the National Policy Statement on Urban Development.
– Economists are divided on the direction of interest rates, with some predicting further hikes and others expecting rate cuts as economic activity fluctuates.

Article Summary:

There is uncertainty regarding the future of foreign buyers in the NZ housing market as incoming PM Chris Luxon refused to comment on reversing the ban. Meanwhile, first home buyers are making a strong presence in the market, accounting for a record high of 27%, thanks to lower property prices and a downturn in property values. However, experts predict that house prices will rise in the coming years due to high migration and tax benefits for landlords.

Economist Shane Martin expects housing policy to remain largely unchanged under the incoming government, as both National and Labour share similar plans for increasing housing supply. Increasing supply is seen as the key to solving the housing crisis, with experts suggesting incentivizing local councils to support development.

There is uncertainty among economists regarding the future direction of interest rates. Some believe that inflation will necessitate further rate hikes, while others think the tightening of monetary policy will lead to rate cuts as economic activity fluctuates.

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