Key Facts:

  • The housing market downturn is over, according to Corelogic.
  • Property values rose 0.4% in October and 0.1% over the past three months.
  • The peak-to-trough fall in national values is 13.2%, with an average loss of $138,000.
  • Prices are still almost 25% higher than their March 2020 level.
  • Auckland, Wellington, Hamilton, Christchurch, and Dunedin experienced value increases, while Tauranga remained flat.
  • Papakura prices were up 2.2% in the month, while the central city area was down 0.1%.
  • Porirua saw a rise in average values, but Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt, Wellington City, and Kapiti Coast were stable or experienced a drop.
  • Mixed outcomes were seen in other regions, with Rotorua, Gisborne, Whangarei, and Hastings recording increases, and Invercargill, New Plymouth, and Whanganui recording falls.
  • Key factors contributing to the housing market turnaround include stronger fundamentals, a shift in voting to the center-right, record-high net migration, and resilience in employment.
  • The loosening of lending rules and loan-to-value restrictions, as well as a lack of new listings, have also impacted the market.

Article Summary:

According to Corelogic, the housing market downturn in New Zealand is over. Property values have seen a rise of 0.4% in October and 0.1% over the past three months. Despite this, prices are still almost 25% higher than their March 2020 levels. The increase in confidence is flowing through to sellers and buyers, with new listings up and auctions regaining popularity. The turnaround in values is seen across various regions, including Auckland, Wellington, Hamilton, Christchurch, and Dunedin.

While some areas like Papakura and Porirua have experienced significant value increases, others such as the central city area and Kapiti Coast have seen decreases or remained stable. Outside the main centers, there is a mixed picture, with some regions recording solid increases while others see falls in property values.

Factors driving the housing market turnaround include stronger fundamentals, a shift in voting to the center-right, record-high net migration, and resilience in employment. The loosening of lending rules and loan-to-value restrictions, as well as a lack of new listings, have also contributed to the market’s recovery. However, the recovery may be subdued compared to previous cycles due to high house prices and the unlikelihood of mortgage rates falling in the near future.

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